Humanoid Robots Hit Assembly Lines: The $30 Billion Race

BMW spent two weeks testing Figure’s humanoid robots at its Spartanburg plant. The machine successfully fitted sheet metal parts into chassis fixtures—a task requiring precision and dexterity. Tesla plans to deploy over a thousand humanoid robots across its factories in 2025. 

If you’re in manufacturing IT or operations, this matters.

Not because humanoid robots are taking over, but because they’re forcing calculations nobody wants to make: can expensive, unproven machines really replace the industrial robots already working reliably? 

Why do humanoid robots in automotive look different now? 

Labor shortages aren’t a future problem anymore. The U.S. manufacturing sector is staring down millions of unfilled positions over the next decade. When you literally can’t hire people, machines that cost as much as several years of salary start looking less optional. 

Traditional industrial robots hit a wall. They’re brilliant at repetitive tasks in controlled environments, but the moment you need flexibility or want to change the line, you’re rebuilding everything around them. That’s the gap humanoid robots promise to fill in automotive automation—walking into human workspaces, using tools we already have, adapting without tearing down the factory. 

Figure’s CEO Brett Adcock makes the case clearly: single-purpose robotics saturated the market decades ago. General-purpose robotics? “Completely untapped.” 

BMW’s production board member Milan Nedeljković called the technology “promising” and committed to testing it from development through industrialization at Spartanburg. 

The reality tells a different story

As of early 2025, exactly one Figure 02 robot operates at BMW’s plant. Its job? Retrieving metal parts from containers and placing them onto fixtures. One repetitive task. Not exactly the flexible, multi-skilled worker revolution the marketing promised. 

Manufacturing costs for humanoid robots dropped significantly in 2024, which sounds like progress. Except even the cheaper models cost what you’d pay a skilled worker for years. They run limited hours before needing a recharge. The math doesn’t add up the way vendors suggest. 

The BMW factory humanoid robot deployment isn’t transformation—it’s cautious learning. BMW hasn’t announced deployment timelines because they’re still figuring out if this actually works at scale. 

The comparison everyone’s getting wrong

Most coverage frames this as a humanoid robot assembly line vs human workers. That misses the real tension. The actual decision? Humanoid robots versus proven automation in automotive manufacturing that’s been working for sixty years. 

Here’s what that looks like: 

• Traditional industrial robots are less expensive per unit but require structured environments and expensive reconfiguration when changes occur. 

• Humanoid robots are significantly more expensive upfront, have limited runtime, and remain unproven at scale, with narrow current capabilities. 

• Human workers incur ongoing labor costs, including benefits and training overhead, but their availability is shrinking rapidly. 

Industrial robots are still more cost-effective and reliable for structured, repetitive tasks. Humans offer flexibility and problem-solving capabilities that humanoid robot assembly lines cannot yet match. Humanoid robots occupy an expensive middle ground, promising flexibility that they haven’t delivered while costing more than either alternative. 

Mercedes’ production lead Jörg Burzer called humanoid robots “a new frontier” for filling labor gaps in physically demanding, repetitive work. Read between the lines: they’re still figuring out if this works. 

Skip the hype: What actually works?

BMW ran a two-week pilot and learned how humanoid robots integrate into existing systems—how they communicate, what breaks, what works. That knowledge came before any commercial commitment. 

Start with the work nobody wants. Goldman Sachs Research sees demand for humanoid robots in mining, disaster rescue, nuclear reactor maintenance, and chemicals manufacturing. Dangerous jobs people avoid. That’s where the premium pricing might justify itself. If you’re automating comfortable work environments, you’re probably solving the wrong problem with expensive tools. 

Plan for integration costs that dwarf hardware. Engineering teams for safety systems, motion control, interfaces—the robot purchase price is just the beginning. 

Verify runtime against promises. Figure 02 has better battery life than the first generation but still operates for limited hours before requiring a recharge. Calculate actual productive hours per shift. A robot that runs for five hours means you need multiple units for continuous operations, multiplying your capital outlay immediately. 

Where are humanoid robot manufacturing trends actually heading? 

Goldman Sachs forecasts the humanoid robot market reaching F38 billion by 2035, with significant demand in structured manufacturing environments like EV assembly and component sorting. But forecasts don’t pay for capital investments. ROI calculations do. 

The real question facing manufacturing leaders isn’t whether humanoid robots represent the future of automation in the automotive industry. They probably do. 

The question is timing. Deploy now or wait for the technology to mature and costs to drop? 

Pilot programs vs payback periods: The reality check 

BMW’s measured approach signals something important: pilot carefully, measure ruthlessly, deploy slowly. Companies racing to announce humanoid robot programs risk expensive lessons about technology that dazzles in presentations but struggles with basic tasks on actual factory floors. 

The organizations winning this transition won’t be the ones making headlines about automation in automotive manufacturing. They’ll be the ones quietly measuring whether expensive new machines actually outperform the traditional automation they already own and trust. 

The assembly line isn’t going humanoid overnight. But the pressure keeps building. Labor shortages intensify. Competitors announce deployments. The calculation gets harder to avoid. 

Just remember: pilot programs make headlines. Payback periods determine whether technology succeeds or ends up as an expensive decoration between battery charges. 

Distilled  

Humanoid robots are no longer lab curiosities—they’re on factory floors. BMW’s cautious pilot with Figure and Tesla’s 2025 deployment plans mark the start of a new era of automation, driven by labor shortages and rising flexibility demands. Yet high costs, limited battery life, and complex integration keep expectations grounded. The factories that win won’t rush to replace workers; they’ll measure, iterate, and deploy humanoid robots where the return on investment truly adds up.